🔗 Share this article

Amid the considerable disarray surrounding the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, a single fact remains evident – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning marked its first major military attack on the continent of South America. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The decision to unilaterally attack another state and capture its head of state – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other factions of the headless administration are even more hardline.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He is convinced that the US’s might allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to obliterate them.

Put aside the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the desire for glory as his standing with the American public falters.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and distracting files fuel his desire for external drama.

It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may live to repent if they fail to speak up today, considering the potential next target.